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Original Zhou Mengmei Times Finance APP
Picture source: pixabay
Author | Zhou Mengmei
Edit | Lan Shuo
The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cutting expectations will strengthen again, and gold also opens up the rising model.
Since July, gold has stepped out of the rise again.According to Wind data, as of July 15 (in the market), London Gold (XAU) has risen by nearly 4%within the month.
After late May, there was a wave of callbacks in gold, but it has gradually recovered since mid -June.On July 15th, London Gold was reported at 565.08 yuan/gram, which was 569.48 yuan/gram from the historical high set in May.
The rise in gold prices has a certain relationship with the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut.Recently, the US CPI data was released in June, and US inflation has been comprehensively cooling, which has caused the market to expected the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
"After the release of the inflation report, the market’s betting on the Fed’s interest rate cuts is increasing." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told Time Finance, "According to the Chicago Commodity Exchange’s interest rate observation tool Fedwatch, investors believe that the Fed is 9The probability of a 25 -basis point of interest rate cuts at the monthly interest rate meeting rose to 92.7%.
Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut is expected to benefit gold?
From late May to early June, gold has gone through a wave of callbacks.Taking the physical gold of London (XAU) as an example, from 569.48 yuan/gram on May 20 to 532.81 yuan/gram on June 7, the maximum retracement reached 6.44%.
But during the year, the overall performance of gold is quite good.According to Wind data, as of July 15, COMEX’s golden year increased by 16.61%, ranking fourth in the performance of major categories of assets around the world.Such as technology leading stocks), Nikkei 225 index, S & P 500 index.
Data source: wind
Recently, the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cutting is expected to rise, or it will further benefit the trend of gold.
Yang Delong told Times Finance that "a round of adjustment in gold in June is mainly a correction that has been too fast before. In fact, the long -term logic of gold has not changed. We believe that the trend of gold in the second half of the year is still likely to fluctuate.If the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut is expected to be fulfilled in September, it is expected that the price of gold may challenge the previous high.
"In the middle and long term, gold is easy to rise, and the logic of asset -absorbing assets and the central bank’s purchase of gold has not changed." BOC Hong Kong pointed out in the "2024 market outlook and investment strategy (July)" that on the one hand, the United StatesThe improvement of the deficit rate and the disturbance of risk events may continue to support the demand of gold. Although there is a rule from the opening to acceleration and final stagnation of gold in the People’s Bank of India, the buying of central banks in other emerging market countries may be involved, and the moment is now involved, and the moment is now involved, and the moment is now involved, and the moment is now involved, and the moment is now involved, and at the momentSPDR Gold (the world’s largest gold ETF fund) is not high. If the actual interest rate fell in the future, it may be an important marginal pricing factor.On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has gradually shifted to interest rate cuts. It is still a greater opportunity event. From the recent various indicators, the characteristics of weakening the US economy are obvious.
Zhou Maohua, a researcher at the Financial Marketing Department of Everbright Bank, told Times Finance that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut cycle is good for gold, mainly because the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates and helps to increase the attractiveness of gold as interest -free assets.At the same time, gold is priced at the US dollar, and has a seesaw effect with the US dollar, and the US dollar rises gold.The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut period is accompanied by a disadvantaged dollar, and the price of gold will be better.
However, Zhou Maohua also reminded that due to adhesive inflation, the Fed is expected to maintain restricted interest rates for a long time. The issue of US debt supply and demand is lingering, and the price of gold may be dragged down.
India’s central bank relay and become a big purchase of golden households
In the long run, the central bank’s buying is one of the main driving forces for rising gold prices.
"After the global financial crisis, the central bank of the emerging market began to increase its holdings. After 2022, the process accelerated significantly.Become the dominant power of changes in the demand for gold outside consumption. "Huatai Securities pointed out in a research report in May this year.
In recent years, the central banks purchased by gold are mainly concentrated in Asian countries.
According to statistics from CICC, since 2022, the global central bank’s gold reserves have increased the top five countries in India, Turkey, Poland, Singapore, and India.84%.Guoabong Wealth Management
Picture source: pixabay
Data from the World Gold Association also show that in the first quarter of 2024, the global central bank’s net purchase volume reached 290 tons, which was a record high in refresh the quarterly purchase amount. Among them, the Turkish Central Bank, the Indian Central Bank, and the Central Bank of India were the top three.
The pace of purchasing gold in recent months has slowed down.On July 7, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange updated official reserve assets showed that in June 2024, the official gold reserve of India was 72.8 million ounces, which was the same as the previous two months.Earlier from November 2022 to April 2024, the Indian Central Bank increased its holdings for 18 consecutive months.
It is worth noting that during the year, the gold net purchase volume of the Indian central bank has exceeded the Bank of India.
According to the calculation of the weekly data of the Bank of India, it increased more than 9 tons in June, the highest level since July 2022.At the same time, the Gold Reserve of the Indian Bank of India has increased by 37 tons this year, totaling 841 tons.
According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, as of the end of December 2023, my country’s gold reserve scale was 71.87 million ounces.At the end of June, as of the end of June, the central bank’s gold reserves increased by 930,000 ounces from the end of last year, or about 26.37 tons.
The trend of central banks in various countries may continue.
According to a survey by the World Gold Association in June 2024, more than half of (57%) the central bank of the developed economy interviewed believes that the proportion of gold in its total reserves in five years will increase. This number will be increased.38%) significantly increased.
The World Gold Association also prompts risks that the prospects of gold are not completely bright. If the demand for gold purchases in the central bank has declined sharply or a large number of Asian investors make a profit, they may affect gold performance.
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Original title: "Indian Central Bank, buy gold crazy"
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