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Securities Research Report | Industry Weekly July 21, 2024
"Excellent performance" is "good stock", and the cost -effectiveness of coke coal has gradually appeared
Review of the market (2024.7.15 ~ 2024.7.19):
The CITIC Coal Index was 3,637.90 points, an increase of 0.42%, and the 300 -Shenzhen 300 index was 1.50pct, ranking 12th in the CITIC sector.
Analysis of key areas:Guoabong Stock
The coal was slightly declined this week, and the coke coal was stable.As of July 19, Beigang’s animal coal was closed for 853 yuan/ton, and the weekly fell by 2 yuan/ton; the CCI Liulin low sulfur main focus was 1920 yuan/ton, which was the same as the weekly.
"Excellent performance" is "good stock".Recently, the price adjustment of the sector is mainly due to the impact of "the performance of some companies in the peak season of coal prices is not as good as expected", and the regulation of the sector has been adjusted since the beginning of the year.Economic strong recovery is expected to fall, and coal prices have accelerated downward, the largest decline in a week;Pune Stock
(3) Mid -late April: Coal companies have released the 23 annual reports of 24Q1 quarterly reports, and some companies are not as expected.In the context of not changing the valuation to repair the underlying logic (the coal price has not broken the long -term price -limited growth economy to the mature economy), the sector has briefly returned to the upward trend after a short adjustment, but it is worth noting that the future sectorInternal differentiation or further intensification, the company’s future "foreseeableness" or the largest alpha of the stock, "excellent performance" is "excellent".
The cost performance of the coking coal sector has gradually appeared, and it can be retired and retreated.At present, at the current price of the coking coal sector, the valuation level generally falls to about 9 times. If it is calculated at 60%dividend ratio, the corresponding dividend rate has reached 6.5%+, and the cost performance is gradually emerging, which is worthy of focusing on attention.
In terms of power coal, the daily consumption of coastal and inland power plants → the overall heal of thermal power is weak and high inventory suppress the price increase.In terms of supply, important conferences are held to suspend production or reduction in some coal mines in order to security, overlay a small number of coal mines for working surfaces, the capacity utilization rate of coal mines has decreased slightly, and coal supply has tightened.In terms of demand, the rainfall of Jianghuai and the south of the south this week, the temperature was high, and the daily consumption of coastal power plants fluctuated at a high daily consumption.Regularly differentiated, the overall consumption is still weaker than last year.In addition, the current power plant inventory is still high, and only some of the market is just needed to purchase, which has a limited effect on price pull.Overall: On the one hand, during the peak summer, some traders still have certain expectations for the improvement of demand, and the cost of overlapping shipping is seriously inverted, and the willingness to ship at low prices is not strong;Power plant consumption daily volatility, but the daily consumption of power plants in inland areas is significantly low. Under the role of hydropower and new energy sources, the overall demand for thermal power is still weak.The overall inventory of the coastal (lower water coal) area is slow, which leads to limited enthusiasm for downstream procurement and conflicts with high prices. Therefore, the price of coal prices lacks price increases, and the short -term market will continue to fluctuate in the short -term market.
In terms of coking coal, the contradiction between supply and demand is not prominent, it is difficult to rise, and it is difficult to continue to run.This week, the coking coal market held a steady operation. Due to the convening of major meetings, the place of origin has tended to have a short period of discontinuation of safety supervision and stricter coal mines, but the overall supply has a limited impact.With the weak fluctuation of futures and steel prices, the market sentiment has fallen. In the past two days, the number of online auctions has increased. The number of coal mining on the online competition has increased.The high ore point is obvious, and the price is reduced by about 50 ~ 150 yuan/ton, and the overall running is stable.In terms of supply, the output of mainstream ore production in production areas this week has rebounded. Some local coal mines have a short -term suspension of production due to major meetings, and the overall supply of production is slightly reduced.In terms of demand, the terminal demand has not seen a significant improvement, and the transaction performance of building materials is general. In addition, the price of steel billet is weak. Steel -coke enterprises are still cautious about the purchase of raw materials and maintain the just needed replenishment.However, the current iron output is still relatively high, and the rigidity of the double focus in the background of high -day consumption is still there.On the whole, since May 1st, the contradiction between coking coal supply and demand is not prominent, and the price continues to run widely (1800 ~ 2100 yuan/ton).The core contradiction of coking coal is the demand for success, not in its own supply and inventory (this year’s black industry chain team is more difficult, and the speculation of raw materials is greatly suppressed).At present, the profit of steel mills is acceptable, but the steel inventory and table need data performance is weak. However, with the high temperature in the north and the seasonal off -season of steel in the rainy season in the rainy season, it is expected that iron water will continue to increase production space, thereby suppressing the price of coking coal.However, due to the failure to recover from Shanxi’s output and support the price of the coal, the price of coking coal prices is limited. It is the so -called "coking coal is not easy to rise, it is easy to fall, and it will continue to operate in the short term."
Coke.The coke market is temporarily operating; the supply and demand in the period of the coke market is relatively small and the price is stable. Due to the weak performance of downstream steel, the coke enterprises are purchased on demand for raw materials.The profits of coke enterprises have basically maintained stable; in terms of supply, due to the recent stability of raw materials coal prices, coke enterprises can mostly be in a profit state, high starting enthusiasm, and a slight increase in supply. Overall, the coke has remained stable this week; this weekCoke enterprise shipments are smooth, the inventory is low, the raw materials of the steel plant have improved, and the supply and demand pattern has improved. In the short term, the price of coke is weak and stable.The impact of the factors such as loose coal prices of raw materials, the coke market has weakened emotions, and the emotional is gradually emerging. In the later period, the profitability of the steel coke market needs to be focused on the price of the steel coke market and the price trend of raw materials.
Investment strategy: Previously, we have always emphasized that "the core of the rising coal plate in this round is the sustainability of prices, not price elasticity."At present, coal prices do not have a significant risk of decline,
Kanpur Wealth Management