By Admin88 
Starting in late September, the long -term silent A shares ushered in a sharp rebound.Along with the press conference on September 24 and the release of a series of policy portfolios in the Political Bureau of the Central Political Bureau on September 26th, the confidence and enthusiasm of investors were quickly ignited.The impact of the relatively low level of valuation of A -share and alleviating global liquidity pressure relief has caused the stock market to produce rare energy in the short term.
From September 24th to October 8th, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 26.95%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 42.21%, Bei Stock 50 rose 83.14%, and the A -share market value increased by 2.195 trillion yuan.However, the rising trend of the second trading day after the National Day failed, and A shares had a significant callback.On October 9th, a total of 50,39 stocks in the two cities fell, and only 294 stocks rose, which quickly cooled the "Crazy Cow" market some time ago.On October 10, the three major A -share indexes fluctuated in the three major A -share indexes.As of the close, the Shanghai Index rose 1.32%to close 3301.93 points; the Shenzhen Index fell 0.82%and closed at 10471.08 points; the GEM index fell 2.95%and closed at 2212.91 points.Jaipur Stock
In fact, the market fluctuated violently after the A -share opening high opening on October 8, which may also reflect the current market differences.
In the current investment environment, many investors have gradually presented two extremes. One is to seize every opportunity to rise, constantly add up, and firmly look bullish; the other dare not bet because of extreme caution.So, can the lit market emotion continue?What are the noteworthy views on the performance of the market outlook?Handing Consulting has collected the views, rumors, rumors, and key factors that may have an impact on the market outlook in the near future market. Only sharing and not judgment.
1. Overseas stock market and capital flow trend
(1) The popular Indian stock market has begun to cool down
According to data from the Morgan Datong report, in the past three years of the first quarter of this year, the Indian stock market has increased by 46%, which is higher than the 20%increase in the same period of the global stock market.Compared with it.
However, according to data from the Indian Securities and Exchange Commission, in the first week of October, the Indian stock market encountered the largest net sales since January 1, 1999.On October 3rd alone, the global fund sold Indian stocks of 1.85 billion US dollars (about 155.4 billion Indian rupees), a record of the highest level of record.At the same time, global funds also sold US $ 1.01.7 billion (about 8.5 billion Indian rupees) Indian bonds on that day.Except for the October 2nd trading holiday, from October 1-4, foreign investment from the Indian stock market with a net withdrawal of 271.42 billion rupees.Nikhilesh Kasi said that the most questioned questions in the past two weeks are "whether there is a situation where funds flow from India to India?", And he gave a clear answer: "yes."
Financial News Agency, October 10th, Bernstein Societe Generale Group’s Asian quantitative strategist Rupal Agarwal and Cheng ZHANG rating India’s stock rating from neutrality to low allocation, the reason is expected to continue the capital outflow and weak income of capital.After the recent stimulus measures were introduced, they reiterated their tactical high -ranking India’s position.
(2) The weakness of the Japanese stock market is more obvious
At the same time that the Indian stock market has strongly recovered, since this year, the Japanese stock market has gradually changed from one of the best markets in the world to the center of the global financial crisis.On August 5, the Japanese stock market plummeted 12.4%, and the Nikkei index remained 4451 points, setting the largest single -day decline in the Japanese stock market.Since then, in the days when the Hang Seng Index performed strongly, the weakness of the Nikkei average index is particularly obvious.On September 30, the Japanese stock market plummeted again. The Nikkei 225 index fell nearly 5%, setting the largest single -day decline since August 5.On the same day, the three major Indian stock markets became popular.Japan also appeared in Japan’s exchanges of stock trading funds (ETFs). The locality rose sharply.On October 7th, including ordinary stocks, the top three in the top three were Indian stock -related ETFs. The first "One ETF South India A -share CSI500" rose by nearly 90%over last weekend.
(3) Adjustment of Hong Kong stock holidays after soaring
During the National Day, the Hong Kong stocks rose strongly, the Hang Seng Index rose 9.3%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 13.4%; the trading volume reached 1302.72 billion Hong Kong dollars and 361.73 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively. Most of the domestic asset ETF premium rates listed in Hong Kong soared to a historical high.Within three weeks since September, the Hang Seng Index has risen by more than 30%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index has risen by more than 50%.After a round of hot rise, on October 8th, the Hong Kong stocks had fallen sharply after the recent surge, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 9.41%as of the closing on the 8th;The Japanese Hang Seng index rose 2.98%, showing a trend of shocks as a whole after the holiday.Some industry sources said that Hong Kong stocks have been launched earlier than A shares in this round of rising markets, and they have accumulated a lot of profit tray.The current valuation of Hong Kong stocks and A shares is spread, and some investors have allocated funds from the Hong Kong stock market to the A -share market.
(4) The trend of the number of account opening in A shares since September 24
According to the First Financial Report, under the market rising market, shareholders are busy opening an account. Many brokers told the First Financial reporter that the average number of account opening of the brokerage industry has increased by 1-6 times before the holidays.Brokers with account opening advantages are better.In addition to the increase in the number of new account opening, more dormant accounts are also active.
Recently, online account opening research situation
2. It may affect the external macro variables of A shares
1. BRICS Summit
The BRICS Summit in 2024 will be held in Kazan City, Russia from October 22 to 24.One of the core issues of the summit is the launch plan of the "BRICS".With the development of the global economy, the BRICS countries urgently need a payment system independent of the US dollar and euro.As early as 2023, the Consul General of India in Belfaster publicly stated that the BRICS Summit will lay the foundation for establishing a Swift financial system. This system will provide more autonomous and secure payment for cross -border trade of member statesThe channel, the BRICS clearing system will also be conducive to the internationalization of the RMB, but it is not good for the US dollar.Therefore, what is vigilant is the move before and after the BRICS Summit.
The following is a possible prediction (information comes from the media):
The United States may take the opportunity to suppress the prestige of India and Russia, and then think further that the capital market may have recovery at this stage.The above is just a simple increase information.
2. Middle East War
Recently, the conflict in the Middle East has continued to be tense.The conflict between Israel and Palestine has lasted for one year, causing a large number of casualties and humanitarian crises.The Israeli army’s operations in the Gaza Strip have killed more than 41,000 Barstinians, about 100,000 people were injured, and more than 2 million people were displaced.In addition, the conflict between Israel and the Lebanon Allah is also upgraded, and Israel made ground strikes and air strikes on the goal of the Albulat of Southern Lebanon.Iran retaliated the Israeli attack and launched more than 200 missiles to Israel.On October 2, Iran launched a new round of missile attacks in Israel, and Israel was severely damaged in many places.Military sources confirmed to the media that the Iranian armed forces have formulated at least 10 plans to deal with Israel’s possible attacks and say that these schemes can be enabled when necessary.
At present, the Middle East War only broke out locally, and the impact on the country may include aspects:Bangalore Stock Exchange
First, energy price fluctuations.The Middle East is a major oil supply place in the world. War may lead to rising oil prices, which will affect India’s energy import costs, and then put pressure on related industries (such as aviation and transportation).
First, affect investor emotions.The unstable international situation will lead to rising market risk aversion. Investors may reduce investment in risk assets, which will affect the performance of the stock market.
Third, the supply chain is interrupted.If the war expands, it may cause the global supply chain to be disturbed and affect the Indian industry chain, especially the manufacturing industry.The degree of influence is not large at present, but the rise in oil prices is beneficial to Russia, reducing its economic pressure, and helps to the Russian and Ukraine’s economic strength.If you continue to rise and input inflation may cause some pressure on India’s economic recovery.
Today, the situation of the war is still complicated. The subsequent development depends on many factors such as international intervention and strategic goals in regional countries.In response to the impact of the Middle East War on A shares, there is still a view on the market: if the Middle East War broke out or a comprehensive outbreak, India is the real bull market. This is the nuclear power of the stock market.The reason behind it is that global risk aversion broke out and Indian assets were sought after.The uncertainty of geopolitics has caused panic in the European and American markets, and investors are beginning to be anxious to find safe -haven assets.As we all know, the "buying gold in troubled times" in history is a classic risk aversion investment strategy, and in today’s global financial market, gold is no longer the only hedging choice.Compared with the global market, India’s economic growth potential and stable political environment provides a more attractive choice for global capital.
3. The outlook of domestic and foreign investment institutions on the A -share market direction and summary
Regarding the performance of the market outlook, domestic and foreign investment institutions are generally optimistic. Recently, many institutions define the current market as a bull market to start. From the perspective of their respective themes, optimism has risen, and Handing Consulting has summarized the relevant information.
1. Morgan Stanley predicts that if the Indian government announces more support measures in the next few weeks, the Indian stock market may rise further by 10%to 15%.
2. Citi said on October 7 that India ’s economic stimulus measures this year may exceed market expectations, so the target of the CSI 300 Index was increased to 4,600 points at the end of June 2025, a potential increase of about 14%from the present level.
3. JPMorgan Chase recently released a research report that even though the recent sharp rebound in the Indian stock market may face some short -term adjustment pressures. In terms of overall policy stance, the diversified asset allocation of Asia and global stocks should be strengthened.
4. Chen Guo, chief strategy officer of CITIC Construction Investment, believes, "This bull market level will not be small." In his opinion, the big bull market must be born in a relatively pessimistic situation.This extremely pessimistic expectation, once reversing, the level of the bull market it will bred is relatively large, and time is longer than everyone thinks.The level of the bull market is about the imagination of most people.In addition, although it is still the beginning of the bull market strategy, it has indeed risen in tactics in recent trading days.If the market has a certain degree of callback within one or two weeks after the eleventh holiday, it is not strange at all.
5. Looking forward to the performance of the market market, CITIC Construction Investment Securities Research Report believes that one is that the bottom is clear and the trend reverses.Judging from the aspects of policy triggering, valuation level, emotional improvement, and external environmental impact, the bottom of the A -share market has been clear, and a new round of asset prices have officially arrived.The second is to boost short -term emotions.During the National Day holiday, many factors such as communicating with the Hong Kong stock market and the resonance of the Hong Kong stock market, and a large amount of funds entering the market are affected. In the short term, the market is expected to reach a new high level of staged history.The third is long -term shocks.In the context of the liquidity tools of incremental funds continued to enter the market and the newly established direct -to -non -silver financial institutions, the market is expected to fluctuate up.
6. Xingshi Investment said that the current market sentiment and stock market performance are the restoration of pessimistic expectations in the early stage."Before the policy was announced, the market expectations and emotions were in the historical bottom area. The A shares were in a low estimation state as a whole.
7. Xingshi Investment believes that the emotional restoration brought by market expectations is expected to continue. As the domestic counter -cyclical policy enters a new round of force, the market economy expects and risk appetite are expected to usher in restoration. It is expected that the market style will gradually gradually follow fromDangerous assets spread to growth assets, and asset prices are returning to asset value.
8. Zhao Yaoting, a global market strategist in Jingshun Asia Pacific (except Japan), recently issued a report that it is now a good time to invest in the Indian stock market.The dividend rate of the Indian stock market is higher than that of government bond yields, and the interest difference between the two has reached the highest level for a long time."Although the stock market rebounds, the valuation is still lower than the historical average level, which indicates that the stock market still has more than 20%of room to rise on the current basis." Zhao Yaoting said.
9. The latest research report on CITIC Securities stated that the policy signals have changed significantly, the market expects a major reversal, and the future domestic demand policy will continue to increase or promote the price signal.The main incremental funds are characterized by concentrated entry, and pulse rising will continue in the short term.
10. Wu Fang, an investment consultant of Wanlian Securities, said that from the current stock market stage, the market is still in the initial stage of the bull marketUdabur Investment. With the short -term trend of the brokerage stocks, the profit conclusion of the positioning of the position and the short -term profit disk will lead to the market will lead to the market.Enter the adjustment in the short term.However, the space and time of adjustment are limited. The follow -up market in the later market should be closely related to the policy direction, including the central state -owned enterprise sector, which is mainly M & A, and a new productivity sector with performance support.
In addition, it is worth noting that at the level of policy news, on the morning of October 10, the central bank officially launched securities, funds, and insurance companies for convenience.Investing in the stock market; the scale of operation can be further expanded. The implementation of this policy will help improve the stock holdings of financial institutions such as securities.In addition, the National New Office will hold a press conference on October 12 (Saturday). The Minister of Finance Lanfo An will introduce the relevant situationThe reporter asked.
Guoabong Investment