By Admin88 
Source: Snowball APP, Author: Fayek, (
Catalog: Introduction 2: Competitive Luan 3: Business Model 4: Competitive advantage 5: Valuation
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the "Hong Kong Stock Exchange") is one of the world’s largest financial market operation institutions. It merged in March 2000 by the Stock Exchange, the Futures Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong settlement in March 2000. In June of the same yearOn the market.
As the only exchanges in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange adopts vertical integration model to acquire two exchanges and four major settlements in Hong Kong to form a transaction liquidation integrated. In fact, it has the monopoly management right of Hong Kong.
Hong Kong’s securities transactions have a long historyBangalore Wealth Management. Earlier in the 19th century Hong Kong’s port opening, the earliest securities transactions in Hong Kong can be traced back to 1866.Hong Kong’s first stock exchange, the Hong Kong Stock Broker Association, was established in 1891.In 1914, it was renamed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In 1921, Hong Kong established the Second Stock Exchange, the Hong Kong Stock Agent Association.In 1947, the two exchanges were merged into Hong Kong Stock Exchange Co., Ltd.By the late 1960s, the original exchange of Hong Kong could not meet the needs of the stock market prosperity and development.After 1969, the three stock exchanges of the Far East, Gold and Silver, and Kowloon, the so -called "Four Conference Times" that coexisted in the four exchanges of the Hong Kong securities market.The former four exchanges and founding time of Hong Kong: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange was founded in 1947, and the Far East Stock Exchange was founded on December 17, 1969.The Gold and Silver Securities Exchange was founded on September 15, 1971, and the Kowloon Stock Exchange was founded in 1972
The Hong Kong Exchange has 9 wholly -owned subsidiaries.These include 4 exchanges (the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the London Metal Exchange, the Shenzhen Qianhai Joint Exchange Center) and the 5 settlement centers (Hong Kong Central Settlement, Hong Kong Futures Settlement, Hong Kong Overseas Settlement, Hong Kong UnionSales option settlement house, LME CLEAR).
Asset categories cover securities, derivatives and goods, and the market covers Hong Kong, Mainland and London.The equity structure of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is scattered.As of June 30, 2022, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government held 5.90%of the shares, and the remaining shareholders were public investors
Since 2009, Hong Kong has ranked first in the global IPO fund -raising.In 1997, 2000, 2006-2007, 2016-2018 was the peak period of the size and number of Hong Kong stocks IPO.The financing amounts in 2006 and 2010 reached 327.8 billion Hong Kong dollars and 432.3 billion Hong Kong dollars, respectively.
On June 29, 1993, the first mainland company went to Hong Kong to go public, opening the prelude to the listing of Indian companies to Hong Kong.
On July 1, 1997, there were 597 listed companies in Hong Kong. As of June 30 this year, the number of listed companies in Hong Kong has risen to 2,565, of which 1,370 in Mainland companies have listed in Hong Kong, accounting for 53.3 of the total number of listed companies in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange%, The market value accounts for 77.7%of the total market value of Hong Kong stocks.
At the end of 1997, the total market value of Hong Kong stocks was HK $ 3.2 trillion. As of June 27, 2022, this number had reached 37.88 trillion Hong Kong dollars.The total market value has increased by 10 times.
At the same time, as of last year, the turnover of the Hong Kong stock market was HK $ 41088.1 billion, which was 44.66 times the turnover of HK $ 920 billion in 1998.
The long -term return of the stock market value of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is almost equal to the growth of turnover
In the past 25 years, the GDP of Hong Kong has doubled to more than 2.8 trillion yuan; bank deposits have increased from HK $ 1.6 trillion in 1997 to 7.5 trillion Hong Kong dollars todayMore than twice the record of more than 10 trillion yuan, ranking 6th in the world; the total employment population increased by 15%to about 3.65 million; enterprises with Hong Kong as the regional headquarters or regional offices increased by 57%to nearly 4,000; foreign exchange reserves were from from the foreign exchange reserves from the reserves.In 1997, 80 billion US dollars increased to $ 460 billion, an increase of 4.7 times.
The scale of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is at a relatively leading level in the world.According to statistics from the World Exchange Association: As of the end of 2021, the total market value of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange’s stock was US $ 5.43 trillion, ranking 7th in the world; the number of listed companies increased year by year.A total of 2572 were at the end of 2021. In 2021, the annual transaction volume of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (including electronic order transactions, negotiation transactions, and report transactions) was US $ 4.38 trillion, which was about 32%from 2020, and it was 7th in the world.The scale of Hong Kong IPO financing has remained leading. In 2021, the Hong Kong IPO market raised a total of 42.556 billion US dollars, which is the top 4 in the world.
100 years ago Stock Exchange’s transition from a member system to a company system was the main reason for our cake allocation.The storm promoted the merger of the exchange and the settlement company.EssenceEssenceEssenceEssenceEssenceSo what about this round of stocks in Hong Kong stocks?
Two: Competitive pattern
1.1 Competition pattern and opponent
From a narrow perspective, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange belongs to regional monopoly business, and the only exchanges that integrate transactions and settlement in Hong Kong have no competitors.The company is in the upper reaches of the industrial chain.From a broad point of view, the opponents of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are exchanges in other regions, such as the total market value of the Singapore Exchange, the Indian Exchange, etc.
Example: Indian Exchange
There are two exchanges on the Mumbai Exchange and the State Exchange. In 1875, 22 stock brokers, in Mumbai, India, established the Mumbai Exchange. This is also one of the oldest securities exchanges in Asia.
Recently, the market value of the Indian exchanges surpassed Hong Kong to become the fourth in the world.Thinking: What is the national strength of India, the economic structure, the national competitiveness, and the stock system?
2.2 Industry development prospects and company development opportunities
Hong Kong is the bridge of the Indian link world and undertakes the financial market links and open tasks.The activity of foreign and domestic capital, the listing of mainland enterprises, and enterprises in cutting -edge industries such as technology and biopharmaceutical companies (18A) collectively list fresh blood into fresh blood.This is the development prospects and competitive advantages of the Hong Kong Exchange.
2.3 The relationship between supply and demand in the industry has nothing to do.The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is the only supplier in the region
2.4 Industry threshold
Policy threshold.No one can do this business
Conclusion: The narrow competition pattern is the absolute monopoly of the region. The general competition pattern is to compete with other countries.
3: Business model
The moats of the business model of the Hong Kong Exchange are as follows:
1 The coinage tax: In essence, the monopoly of the currency 2: the only supplier 3 banknote printing machine: the return of the top capital 4 -cycle growth: Niu Xiong market 5 light assets: capital expenditure and operating costs extremely low 6 Sustainable operation: World World: World World: WorldThere are no exceptions of exchanges in various countries that have operated the 7 -year 7 platform economy: bilateral network effects 8 winners to eat: Top ten exchanges around the world account for 90%of the world’s trading volume
The business of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange involves stocks, futures, goods and its financial derivatives.His profit model is equal to the casino model, and he collects four types of money.One is the money of traders, and the money of TOC, the other is the money of listed companies, and TOB money.The third is the money to collect technology, such as systems and data.Fourth, the money of investment income, including fair value investment and fixed income investment
The toll business covers all links such as transactions, settlement, hosting, service, investment and other links.The biggest of which is TOC charges and traders’ money (transaction+settlement), accounting for about 60%
In 2006-2021, net profit increased from 5 times to HK $ 2.5 billion to HK $ 12.5 billion, with a compound growth rate of 11.33%.Only 10%of retention profits are completed, so an amazing fact that long bull stocks or long -term growth stocks are not necessarily super growth, but the largest gold content and minimum consumption output ratio of growth
Four: Competitive advantage and moat
The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is a typical platform economy. Its business model has the following characteristics: (1) Legal monopoly: equity structure and board seats to ensure the government’s dominance of the company (2) vertical and horizontal integration: transaction settlement integration, spot derivative integrationEssence(3) Network effects: Listed companies, brokers, investors bilateral payments (4) scale effect: transaction amount increases and human unit cost margins decrease (5) Pioneer advantage: Innovation driving force and card position (6) traffic effect:The stock market is the flow pool of information and funds. Information promotes the technological revolution (7) business leverage: a large amount of deposit has precipitated, and 400 billion yuan in total assets have 200 billion cash (8) Coordinated effect: major businesses affect each other, 1+1 greater than 2 (9) endorsement: economy, national strength, political (10) political economy: with the dual characteristics of public undertakings and business
The future destiny of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange depends on the following three points, and opportunities and risks coexist.Competitive advantage and moat depends on how you understand Hong Kong, understand India, and understand the world
The first is to depend on international status: Hong Kong or the Asian Financial Center?The second is on the political status: the mainland government’s attitude towards Hong Kong, Sino -US relations?The third is depending on the business environment: Is it open?Is it a free market economy?Fourth, it depends on the industrial structure: whether it is in line with the development law of the times?
The opponents of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange are not in India, but international competition brought by exchanges in other countries.When the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was listed, the Tokyo Exchange regarded the Tokyo Exchange as an example, but later the Hong Kong Stock Exchange continued to surpass.Similarly, exchanges in other countries may catch up with you in the future.As long as the economy is strong and the economic structure is good, the government system is reasonable, and the latecomers can catch up.So what advantages do you need to think about Hong Kong payment?
The assumption of valuation.
1 In the next 10 years, the composite profit growth rate of profit is 10%. The dividend rate is currently about 25 times the current price -earnings ratio. 4 In the next 10 years, the dividend rate of 90% 5 years will continue to increase the dividend of the next 10 years and the profit will be increased by 10% synchronously.
After 10 years, the cumulative dividend of 20%was 38.25%of the revenue of 160%of the stock price after 10 years.The cumulative income is 160%+38.25%= 198.25%.About 10 years, 12%composite returns.(No calculation of the dividend and re -investing, otherwise it will be higher)
25 times the price -earnings ratio value?
1 Future free cash flow is discounted; companies with sustainable operations are 25 times that of a completely reasonable 2 Graham growth stock valuation method (1) The expected price-earnings ratio = 8.5+2 growth rate (7-10 years).Suppose that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange grows in the next 7-10 years of growth is 10%.(2) Internal value = The calculation result of the expected price-earnings ratio per share is: 8.5+210 = 28.5 times that the internal value of the price-earnings ratio per share: 9.528.5 = 270 yuan 3 3-3.5%.Equal 30 times valuation
Conclusion: At present, 250 yuan stock price, 25 times the price -earnings ratio. Its valuation is completely reasonable.It is best to wait until 15 times the price -earnings ratio: Buy top companies based on reasonable prices instead of waiting for excellent opportunities to start.Because you will lose more in the face of time cost.
Risk reminder: (1) The income of flat -length and dividends in the next 10 years (2) The index will not rise for a long time (3) Economic Depression (4) International competition (5) Public attributes (6) market value volume
Conclusion: The 10 -year valuation is expected to be a compound growth of 10%+a total of 38%of the dividends.Overall the compound return of 12-13%, if the dividend reinvestment expands the number of shares and dividends.Can achieve about 15%.It is difficult to achieve a 20-30%returnJinnai Wealth Management. Unless the growth exceeds expectations, the valuation exceeds expectations
Tips for improving returns: Make money by using cycles.The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is a periodic growth stock.If you encounter cattle stocks in the future
Assume that the performance increases by 50%, that is, 1.5 times the valuation from 25 to 50 times, that is, 2 times
2*1.5 = 3 times benefits
In the future, the thinking of free cash flow is quantitative+qualitative, but eventually qualitative.At the same time, the huge compound interest brought by time cannot be ignored (1) Different stages of the life cycle (2) Different business models (3) Different free cash flow content (4) Different sustainability (5) Different market value (6) flowingDifferent sexual premiums (7) Different discount rates (8) Different shareholding cycles
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